"The end of the economic domination of the West and the invasion of the East" * By Maria Negreponti-Delivanis** 02/27/2021
"The end of the economic domination of the
West and the invasion of the East" *
By Maria
Negreponti-Delivanis** 02/27/2021
===========================================================================
Over
the past five decades the West has been going through a period of decline and
is gradually entering uncharted waters. And what we know, security and
tradition, is clearly retreating, and being replaced by the unknown. Indeed,
many signs point to the end of globalization which has proven not to be the
system that ensures prosperity for all the inhabitants of the Earth, but the
one that has recorded very few winners and countless losers. . I have based
myself on two evolutions in order to interpret the decline of the West. I am
thinking first of the plausible hypothesis that Western civilization has
exhausted the available time that is historically allotted to each
civilization, so it is now called upon to pass its sovereignty to its
successor. The advanced centers of "Western civilization" already
paint a picture of the irrefutable general decline in all manifestations of
social, economic, political and cultural life. And it is precisely at this
point that the West is focusing on its principles and characteristics to
support the fact, as vigorously as possible, that it and it alone represent an
ideal and unparalleled mortgage in the world. This is, as everything suggests,
the harbinger of the end of the era of Western culture, as happened to all the
previous ones who followed the same determined path. This is how they grow,
reach their peak and die out. The reason for the decline of civilizations is
not linked to a particular regime, or to a particular cosmotheory, or to acts
or omissions on the part of the policy followed. On the contrary, the decline
of the civilizations of the past was independent of the then regime or of the
cosmotheory in force, which had nevertheless been cracked or had adopted
extremes during the exercise of their power. Therefore, systems such as
capitalism, socialism, neoliberalism or globalization alone do not cause the
decline of the cultures in which they operate, but each of them acquires
repulsive and dangerous characteristics, while the culture in which they
operate. question points to decomposition and disappearance. All culture
enters, according to Oswald Spengler, into the terminal phase of its existence,
which is winter or, according to Alvin Hansen, into the stage of mature
capitalism, which marks its end. The decline and death of civilizations that
evolve in cycles of 200-250 years, not only marks the end of an era, but also
the dawn of a new one, that is to say the emergence of 'a new culture that
replaces the one that is departing. Western culture was born from the ashes of
ancient Greek civilization, with the successive rise, from 1860, of dominant
economic centers: Australia, Great Britain and the United States. Currently,
the world economy is once again going through a phase that seems trapped in the
turn of socio-economic upheavals. In this phase of capitalist evolution, our
culture, Western culture, which coexists with democracy, capitalism, liberalism
and for 50 years globalization, is threatened with marginalization. There is no
doubt that in recent decades Western culture has gradually lost its influence
and its appeal and that more and more supporters are abandoning it. The United
States, however, as the main representative of Western culture, seems unable or
unwilling to admit reality. And secondly I am thinking of the secular
stagnation at the unprecedented stage of capitalism, which we are going through
and which threatens advanced economies, with the end of growth. So, in the
obscure, mysterious and even terrifying realm of crop rotation, this second
threat to the future of the world's advanced economies has been analyzed by the
famous American economist Alvin Hansen. This is the theory of secular economic
stagnation. According to this theory, the arrival of the secular stagnation
phase must be seen as an inevitable consequence of the system of mature
capitalism which, once reached a certain critical point, is no longer capable
of fueling growth. Alvin Hansen defines this evolutionary phase of capitalism
as follows: "the weak and ephemeral resumptions of activity which barely
die, depressions which are self-sustaining and lead to persistent
unemployment". This theory had been forgotten for some 80 years and
recently revived by Lawrence Summers and his team. While crop rotation affects
the whole of social, economic, cultural and perhaps even religious life, the
secular stage of stagnation essentially affects the economy.
Yet
the character of these two cases is determined. This means that any attempt to
subdue them would only delay their arrival, without it being possible to
prevent them. A parenthesis, however here to appeal to the contribution of
globalization which precipitated the decomposition of the West through:
*
The abysmal inequalities in the distribution of income and wealth, which is the
most harmful fact of globalization
*
And until recently, inequality in the distribution of income and wealth was
seen as an unavoidable phenomenon, as an exclusively social and not an economic
problem
*
But the IMF recently showed that when the richest 20% of the population increase
their income by 1%, growth slows by 0.08% in the following five years, and
conversely, a 1% increase in the income of the Poorest 20% of the population
accelerates growth by 0.38% in the next five years
*
Certainly one of the reasons which accelerated the decline of the West is the
weakening of the role of national governments having delegated a large part of
their sovereignty to the "invisible hand", supposed to regulate the
markets, but also:
-The
deliberate abandonment of the full employment policy
-The
abolition of respect for national borders
-
The migratory wave to Europe
-
The virtual economy has been encouraged to the detriment of the real
-
Terrorism
-The
implementation of the Coudenhove-Kalergi plan: The genocide of the peoples of
Europe
And
many others.
I
return to the decadence of constant stagnation, such as moral decay, decadence
of the core values of life, education, the administration of justice, the
welfare state, explosion of king's money , crime, and of course, the
diminishing importance of democratic principles.
Moreover,
in both cases, that of crop rotation, like that of the arrival of the secular
stage of stagnation, one foresees the existence of successors and not a vacuum.
Precisely the essential anomaly of modern advanced economies, which refers to
the theory of eternal stagnation, exhibits the following characteristics, which
persist despite some signs of growth:
First, the interest rate remains very low, or
below zero, describing a frozen situation, where the demand for savings is
greater than the demand for investment.
Second,
banks, in order to re-introduce the balance between saving and investment,
should reduce the level of the interest rate.
However,
this is not possible, since this level is already very low and it is more a
question of raising it.
Third,
if the supposed upswing of the business cycle begins with such a low interest
rate, that rate could not drop even lower to reinvigorate economic activity, in
case it threatens to be delayed.
This
then means that advanced economies no longer have this very effective weapon of
interest rate manipulation to resolve imbalances in the economy.
Fourth, despite the revival of the world
economy and the colossal wealth accumulated in the hands of a few, productive
investment has not been encouraged, especially public investment.
Fifth, the global public and private debt is
constantly increasing, despite the introduction of austerity policy on the
planet, and especially in Europe in recent decades.
Sixth,
inflation, wanted around 2%, nevertheless remains below and often in deflation
And
seventh finally, despite the recovery, during certain periods wages are still
frozen at low levels.
Add
to these concerns the fear caused by the exorbitant global debt, public and
private.
This
continues to climb, reaching 164 trillion dollars or 225% of the annual world
GDP in 2019.
It
is now out of control because of the pandemic, which has spent an estimated 26
trillion dollars in "money per helicopter"
Part I. The West is
plagued by insurmountable problems
A. The problems of
the West
These
are the problems that arose especially after the great economic crisis of 2008
and are likely to be final for the world economy. They boil down to the
increasingly frequent and lengthy ineffectiveness of macroeconomic policy which
fails to achieve general equilibrium, namely economic and monetary.
The
causes of this new and extremely difficult situation are numerous and
persistent, such as:
a)
The impossibility of reaching general equilibrium because of an overabundance
of savings which is not absorbed by investment and because of a supply of
products and services in the face of insufficient demand , which end up
lowering the general price level.
Lawrence
Summers, in bringing out Alvin Hansen's theory of the end of growth, explains
why falling real rates, coupled with low inflation, may never achieve full
employment.
b)
The few signs of the eternal stagnation of the West are:
*
The low rate of growth
Until
2017, almost ten years after the onset of the crisis, the US economy is growing
by around 2%, while the EU is growing at an even slower pace than America.
These rates are disappointing for those who plan and for consumers, as they
fall short of expectations, and fuel their fears that the recession will last
for a long time to come.
*
The collapse of investment
Since
the start of the 2008 financial crisis there has been a sharp drop in
investment in Europe.
*
Negative interest rates
This
is a far from orthodox measure, which was first adopted by the EU.
This
measure exudes anguish and is indisputable proof that all available and
traditional monetary policy measures have been unable to revive the European
economy and to a Western extent. It is the largest economic experiment in world
history, the effects of which are as yet unknown.
*
The new content of the technological innovations of capitalism seems unable to
lead to an increase, at least visible, in productivity because of its
qualitative rather than quantitative result
*
Long-term unemployment
The
unemployment rate remains high in Europe, and very high in several southern
European economies. Regarding the unemployment rate in the United States,
despite a less deflationary monetary policy, it has fallen alongside GDP,
strengthening the idea that this is the beginning of a new stage in of the
evolution where growth is absent, as it emerges from a study on the subject,
the number of men from 24 to 54 years old has not stopped decreasing in
employment for 40 years, as well as the creation of new jobs.
*
Traditional tools no longer work
It
turns out that in the West we need new interpretive tools that are not yet
available. As a result of this shortcoming, the functioning of modern economies
has become chaotic, subject to the law of the jungle. It appears that drastic
changes have taken place in the macroeconomic environment, and that they no
longer allow the hypothesis of '' stable and sustainable income and employment
Europe and America have been sending out economic signals since 2009 that are
unresponsive to internal and external stimuli
This means that traditional monetary policy
will henceforth be unable to simultaneously achieve conditions of full
employment, rapid growth and financial stability.
.
B. The reasons for
the decline of the West
α)
Demographic evolution
One
of the most important interpretations of Alvin Hansen's secular stagnation
theory is the slowing of the rate of population growth. This development can be
observed in many modern advanced economies, and more in Europe, which has shown
a negative pace since 2010. The harmful consequences of the aging of the
European population are multiple, and reduce:
•
real GDP in relation to potential,
•
demand for new housing,
•
the propensity to invest and innovate,
More
precisely, the world population is expected to increase from the current 7.3
billion to 8 billion in 2030, to 9 billion in 2050 and to 11.2 billion in 2100.
This increase of the order of 50% of the world population in 2100 will be
Unevenly distributed Europe and East Asia are estimated to see their populations
decline, but the population will increase dramatically in developing economies
to around 4 billion, potentially slowing their growth. The percentage of the
population of the United States and the EU in 2025 will not exceed 9% of the
world population, while the population in Asia is already 50%. The problem of
an aging population and the collapsing of the middle class are interpreted as
an autonomous evolution of mature capitalism.Research that has concerned OECD
economies concludes that their aging populations will have negative
consequences growth. Precisely when the share of the population over 60
increases by 10%, growth drops by 5.5% per capita. The elderly European
population will almost double, in 2060. And while today in the European Union,
there are 4 people of working age for 1 retiree over 65, in 2060 there will
only be 2 people for each retiree.
While in the West, the middle class, the
engine of progress of any economy, is weakened, its specific weight at the
global level is increasing considerably, especially in Asia. It should also be
added the fact that the regions that will ensure global growth are no longer
the same and, what is particularly significant, that they are moving away from
the West, which reinforces the estimates according to which the latter will be
overtaken by secular stagnation. Finally, it should be added that beyond these
difficulties known to the West, a catalyst danger is looming on the horizon
which concerns the global hegemony of the dollar. Russia and the BRICS are
moving towards an alternative international monetary system, aimed at ending
the long domination of the dollar as an international reserve currency.
Summarizing
Part Ι as follows: The chronic declining participation of the West and the very
rapid growth of emerging economies is relentless and does not allow to hope for
a possible reversal of the trend. In 1955, for example, the G-7's share of
world GDP was 45%. In 2018, it had fallen to 31% and according to estimates, it
should only be 20% in 2050. The share of emerging economies in world GDP
follows the opposite trend, namely that in 1995 it was 22 %, in 2015 it was
36.3% and is expected to reach 50% in 2050. In other words, a complete
overthrow of the existing international economic order, with China in the
leading role.
Part II. The East
embodies the new international economic order
The weakness of the West goes hand in hand
with the very rapid rise of the new superpower the East led by China The
arrival of a new world carrying a new international economic order seems almost
determined Indeed, developments, analyzes and statistics, everything shows that
soon the West will be forced to cede its throne to China. It is also expected
that this new dominant world power will gradually take over from other emerging
economies in Asia and Africa. A bitter irony hangs over the world, owing to the
fact that it was America that made the choice of globalization, when in the
early 1970s, it had concluded that in this way it would eliminate the risk of
being taken over. by Europe or Japan. At that time America did not foresee that
the great hidden danger was China, this poor and marginalized giant. And while
globalization has brought misfortune to the West, it has on the other hand
ensured the rise of China and other emerging countries. Now that China poses an
undeniable threat, America's only reaction, at least for the moment, is to turn
back the clock, once again opting for protectionism. It is certainly difficult
to predict international developments, but it seems unlikely, if not
impossible, that America can prevent the primacy of China:
*
First, because in many ways the size of China's economy is already larger than
that of the United States, and nothing seems to prevent it from continuing
there. Add to this point that the pandemic has, ultimately, favored China,
since it is the only economy in the world with a positive rate of growth.
*
Second, because the globalization with specific standards that China is eagerly
preparing and which should be completely different from the declining Western
globalization, threatens to destroy everything in its path. Indeed, Chinese
globalization is based on rigorous and precise planning which has previously
determined which products and in what quantity China will place on the
international market.
*
And third, because China has already passed into the phase of strengthening
domestic consumption, imposing a restriction of its dependence on exports, and
the great "Silk Road" project is progressing successfully. This is
how the rise of China was spectacular since from 1971 to 2013 was able to
increase its GDP by 34 times. This miracle has no precedent in world economic
history. This miracle was made possible by the fact that since 1979 and until
2016, China achieved an average growth rate of its economy of 10% per year.
America continues to have a per capita income 4 times higher than that of
China, but the difference is steadily decreasing and barring the unforeseen
before 2025 China will surpass the GDP of the United States. China's GDP in PPP
terms has most likely exceeded America's. China's share in international trade
has exceeded that of the United States. China is already the largest economy in
the world in terms of industry, export and import goods, but also in terms of
the volume of foreign exchange in its possession. It is now the second largest
trading partner of the United States. , the third largest market for their
exports and the first for their imports. In recent years the trade war which
was in effect a war on new technologies has reduced trade between the two
superpowers. commercial with Europe while finding open doors
A.
Factors That Contributed to China's Dramatic Rise
Emphasize above
all the fact that China has succeeded to perfection in combinations that seemed
generally impossible, such as:
-make a free and competitive market coexist
with a large public sector
-a planned
economy, with a private sector,
- the private
sector in China indeed has a privileged place, on condition, however, that it
remains under the control of the government.
-capitalism with
communism
- an authoritarian regime with a liberal
democracy.
Despite the bad
forecasts and its huge population, China was able to overcome the “middle
income trap”. This is the difficulty faced by many emerging economies,
especially Latin America and Asia, in exceeding the average per capita income
of around $ 5,000 per year. This is because from the start the decision-makers
were aware of the dangers and constantly changed the plan. Thus, from 1978 to
today, China lifted 700 million people out of poverty who founded the middle
class. More specifically, it is estimated that by 2025, 2/3 of the population
will belong to the middle class. In the new technology sector, China has also
denied the West's beliefs that only "free and open societies are capable
of innovating", as its extraordinary and rapid successes have been
achieved under the watchful eye. close and with the help of the Party. This is
precisely the area of technology in which China has jumped phenomenally,
having started very low and having probably already overtaken the United States.
The trade war between the two superpowers, as well as the accusations of theft
and espionage of America is explained thus the area of conflict is the new
technology. The goal, therefore, that will be at the center of the trade war
between America and China is for China not to beat America in the field of
technology, but research and development spending in China. increased from 0.7%
of its GDP in 1991 to 1.8% in 2010, planning that in 2022 it should overtake
the US The development of new technologies have contributed enormously to
growth, to the advancement of industry, pollution control, and inequality
reduction China's total expenditure on R&D reached $ 279 billion in 2017,
and thus shows an increase of 70.9% compared to 2012. China has still had an unsurpassed
and unique advantage, due to the size of its economy, which made it very
important the economies of scale single factor for robots. China, throughout
its period of accelerated growth, was courageous, unafraid of the budget
deficit and, therefore, inevitable inflation. On the contrary, it largely met
the needs for economic liquidity. Note also that the household savings rate has
reached 50% of their income, in order to finance a massive investment. Indeed,
China covers 30% of global investment, but only 10% of consumption - now the
situation is improving with increased consumption. Education in China has
received a massive reform, which has yielded impressive results in that when
skilled Chinese emigrate abroad they prove to be extremely talented and
competitive too, a competition organized by the OECD for students from
Shanghai, have a level significantly higher than the average for OECD
countries.
B.
China's political regime
China has gone
from communism to a form of mixed system made up of elements that form an
original capitalism that could be called “Chinese capitalism”. This Chinese
capitalism is made up of strong elements of “state capitalism”, it is inherent
in the Communist Party combined with much of the ideas of JM Keynes. This
regime is different from that in the West, yet very effective and it is the
People's Republic of China. China's big problem, according to the West, is the
lack of democracy. China responds, "Everyone wants the benefits of
democracy, but political agents would make a fatal mistake if they thought they
would get there just by transplanting the entire Western political
system." Indeed, the West was certain that democracy by Western standards
is the only system capable of guaranteeing the well-being of the people. America
is convinced of the universality and immortality of democratic values and
human rights and seemed convinced that China would join this regime as soon as
it had fulfilled the preconditions since the West could not accept. the fact
that an authoritarian regime could be just as effective as Western democracy
and in addition the West could not accept the fact that a "democracy"
could exist outside the West, with completely different standards and
preconditions but whose goal is the same, namely the prosperity of its people.
China, for its part, believes that what matters to a government is not how it
was chosen, but its aptitudes, its skills, its effectiveness. China's
performance, and not only, suggests that the West does not have a monopoly on
the advantages of democracy, but that these advantages can be acquired by
processes different from those of the West's “popular support” and it is about
its link with democracy: as it is already affirmed in the Selected Works of
Mao: "To establish a link with the masses, we must conform to their needs,
to their desires".
C.
Chinese globalization
Now that
traditional Western-style globalization is on the wane, China’s rise comes with
a new globalization very different from that of the West. It is about Chinese
globalization, which had been presented by Xi Jinping in 2013 as "One
belt, one road", and which has the ambition to "shape the world"
around a new international economic order whose core will be China. This is Xi
Jinping's great project, which he himself qualifies as the “new Marshall Plan”,
but in a more daring version than the previous one. The "Silk Road"
was, 2000 years ago, the main commercial axis. It was by this route that
Genghis Khan arrived in Europe, and it was by this route that Alexander the
Great almost reached China. The fusion of these two great civilizations, Greek
and Far Eastern, gave an extraordinary impulse to the sciences, the arts and
the philosophy. The penetration of Alexander the Great in the Far East, by the
Silk Road, allowed the foundation of new towns, many of which bear his name,
and spread Greek culture and Greek thought to the most distant regions. .
Economic growth had made the cost of moving goods through the “Silk Road”,
which had been abandoned for centuries, prohibitive. But again, new
technologies have brought back the economic opportunity to operate this route,
as rail traffic has become fast and affordable.The information about the
frantic preparations for this new and original globalization, planned and
carried out by China, although reported discreetly and without fuss, certainly
deals with the most important event, given that in the long run, it will change
the face of the world. It is about a globalization with a completely different
philosophy, which makes a clean sweep of all its previous forms. With a budget
of trillions of dollars, China intends to revive the "Silk Road",
implementing colossal infrastructure works in Laos, Pakistan, Kenya, Europe.
China plans to lay out railway lines that will start in Budapest, Serbia and
thus provide an additional artery to distribute its products in Europe. The port
of Piraeus, bought by China, will be its springboard to Europe. The “One Belt,
One Road” project, promoted by Chinese President Xi Jinping, provides for the
construction of infrastructure in Asia, Africa and Europe, and will improve the
quality of life of people in more than 60 countries around the world. The
objective of this major works project is to enhance, as much as possible, the
strategic advantage available to each participating country.
Specifically,
Chinese engineers are building hundreds of tunnels and bridges in the jungle of
Laos that will support the rails of the 414 kilometer long railway line. This
project plans to connect six Asian countries and the estimated cost is $ 6
billion. China is also building power stations in Pakistan to provide
electricity to regions that lack electricity. These investments are estimated
to amount to $ 46 billion. In Kenya, China is improving the rail line that
connects the port of Mombasa to Nairobi, to facilitate access to its products.
This railway line was commissioned in the summer of 2017, and its maintenance
will depend for several years on China. Major infrastructure projects are
planned or have started in Vietnam, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Tanzania,
etc. Funded by China, the construction of a railway line is scheduled, from
Budapest to Belgrade, to provide a new artery to distribute Chinese products in
Europe, via the port of Piraeus. By mutual agreement and with others, colossal
investments in infrastructure projects, in progress or to come, on the three
continents, Asia, Africa and Europe, China is in the process of building its
empire global, its own globalization. It is intensifying its influence and
strengthening its presence also in the South Pacific. During the period
2006-2016, it offered its assistance in the region to the tune of 1.78 billion
dollars for infrastructure projects. The people of the region are willing to
follow her, as the aid and the attractive loans she gives them are not subject
to the strict conditions of the West. This is why the West began to worry about
its expansionist and limitless aspirations. But it is above all Australia that
is worried to know, even if this news has been denied on both sides, that
Beijing has reached an agreement with the government of Vanuatu which provides
for a permanent Chinese military presence on its archipelago. France is also
worried about the intensification of China's influence in Australia, which
explains the brief trip Emmanuel Macron made there in May 2018. the "New
Silk Road" reach $ 1.7 trillion per year. Along with the maritime and land
silk route, Xi Jinping is planning a “polar silk route”. Because, even if the
Arctic is not very close to China, it aims to integrate it into its great
project of the "new silk road". So he plans to build ports and the
infrastructure necessary for mooring ships, especially now that the sea ice is
melting. China, as a “polar power” will continue with the construction of a
railroad opposite Finland. The astronomical sums necessary for the realization
of this gigantic project justify the fear of serious threats. The communist
regime in Laos is seen as a real threat, as is general political instability in
the region and corruption. However, the Chinese president seems certain that in
the long term, the benefits for his country will far exceed the sums invested,
however large they are. It is expected that the completion of this project will
employ 100,000 Chinese. America's concern about China's surge on the entire
planet is shared by the European Union, which, with good reason, also feels
threatened. This is because China has already moved closer to eleven EU Member
States and five Balkan countries with which it cooperates and finances. These
countries are: Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Albania, FYROM, Montenegro, Czechia, Lithuania,
Latvia and Estonia. America and Europe fear the expansion of China in the
Balkans and especially of its ally, Russia, hence their desire to find an
agreement as soon as possible on the name of FYROM so that this small State can
integrate NATO and the EU and protect itself from a possible negative impact.
However, China has already bought Tirana International Airport, the largest
steel mine in Serbia, a large coal mine in Romania and the port of Piraeus in
Greece. Reacting to this, EU countries and allied sources argue that China
"seeks to infiltrate the EU and shatter its cohesion."
Part
ΙΙΙ. Could Thucydides’s trap be inevitable between West and East?
This is an acute
and complicated problem that cannot have a clear answer, at least for the time
being. Indeed, there are pros and cons, and we can go through them quickly. In
order to get a first idea of what may happen in the future, let's first look
at the famous Thucydides dilemma (or trap) which explains the causes of the
Peloponnesian War. The interpretation of this dilemma is considered more
current than ever, as it attempts to shed light on the nature of the relationship
between the United States and China. Thucidides is currently extensively
studied in the White House, under the direction of Harvard Professor Graham
Allison who wonders if America and China can escape Thucydides' trap the trap
is fear - the fear of losing primacy. Faced with the rise of an emerging power
the fear that Sparta had of the growing power of Athens and which provoked the
Peloponnesian War, America's fear of the rise of China can lead to a war and
disaster. Thucydides' study is still relevant in the United States. Times
change but the great problems that men have to face remain the same, such as
the question of war. The work of Thucydides remains essential because it
analyzes in depth the real causes of the conflict between Athens and Sparta,
2000 years ago. And as Thucydides writes "History is an eternal
recommencement". Let us return, then, to the original question: Is a war
between the United States and China really possible?
a) Which ones can
be taken as worrying signs?
First of all, it
is worrying the fact that suddenly, when China is one step from the top of the
world, and nothing more seems to be able to prevent its world economic
domination, the West becomes aware of the threat. Chinese, accuses China of
being its economic enemy and unites to face the eastern invasion. It is obvious
that a conflict between the two superpowers, America and China will be due to
the threat that America will lose its global economic hegemony. Indeed, until
the Congress of the Communist Party, China regarded the West with tolerance and
humility, reassuring it that it was not demanding anything. But this situation
has changed radically after the Congress of the Chinese Communist Party and the
renewal of the presidential mandate of Xi Jinping. So China announced its
intention to become the world's largest economy and demote the United States to
second place.
The
problem is, after so many decades America is unwilling to give up its place.
More exactly, as everything shows, America rejects this possibility, even if
China climbs four to four the steps of world power. So at this point each of
the two great powers considers itself worthy of being in first place, and then
each of the two superpowers shows a superiority complex. And to this
superiority complex and arrogance is added the question of the superiority of
culture. According to the words of the Chinese president or his officers,
"no civilization is comparable to that of China". The leaders of the
Communist Party reject Western liberalism which, while guaranteeing freedom,
has weakened the West. However, unlike America, which considers that all the
peoples of the Earth must adhere to democracy and liberalism, China does not
seek to impose its own worldview choices on the rest of the world. of the
greatest value of their model towards which the world will end up orienting
itself of its own free will. Although China is not yet ready to confront the EE
militarily, it is nevertheless systematically preparing itself for a possible
use of armed force. Yet China can already be considered a significant naval
power with a number of state-of-the-art warships rivaling those of the United
States. But if we turn away from the field of traditional warfare to look at
its successor, that is, autonomous robotics, then it is China that predominates
autonomous robotics, in the event of war, we can imagine terrifying situations
which cannot be ignored. It is not at all certain that efforts to avoid them
are successful. And alongside these differences in civilization and regime, the
trade war, mainly based on new technologies, continues fiercely, possibly
preparing a traditional war between the two superpowers.
b) On the other
hand there are tranquilizing signs. So :
One could possibly
conclude that, for the moment, neither of the two superpowers wants to get
involved in an armed conflict of a traditional form, first of all because the
priority of China is the development of a strong middle class, improving the
standard of living of its inhabitants and disseminating, using and exploiting
new technologies. And on the part of the United States its attitude towards
China is clearly more moderate than towards Russia although, for the States -
United and the West in general, the danger whatever it is, in fact comes less
from Russia than from China, it is Russia which is in the crosshairs, which in
itself is strange and incomprehensible and suggests that, mysteriously as it
sounds, the Cold War did not end in 1989 and is still going on. This is how it
can be said that China inspires greater confidence in the West than Russia. And
this, perhaps because Russia is militarily superior to China. So China's
reluctance towards armed conflict can also be explained by the fact that,
according to estimates, it will not be able to confront America militarily
before 2050.
In
conclusion, one could notice that if the "Thucydides trap" is not
considered peacefully until then, the development of things in the West risks
taking a tragic turn. This is because ten years from now, the idea of war and
how to prepare for it will have nothing to do with today's. In ten years, the
robots, which will then most likely be autonomous, will take charge of wars and
bring them to a successful conclusion. Wars very different from what we know,
more destructive, but also much shorter. And within a few years, as we can
already see, China will undoubtedly be ahead of American robotics.
*
Extract from the book by Maria Negreponti-Delivanis, "The end of the
economic domination of the West and the invasion of the East", Editions L’Harmattan,
2020 (Canada rating: 4 stars)
**Former
rector and professor in economics
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